TRS and the Litmus test.

Telugugeek · Joined: 01 Feb 2007 Posts: 58 Location: Hyderabad

TRS faces a daunting task, a win could improve their strength, a loss or decrease in margin could spell doom for Telangana!!!

THE HINDU Exclusive.

By forcing by-elections to the Assembly and Lok Sabha through en masse resignations, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) has set for itself a daunting task that goes beyond retaining the existing seats. Nothing short of a victory in all the constituencies, that too with improved margins, can drive home its point that the ‘Telangana sentiment’ remains high and works in the TRS’ favour. On the flip side, there is grave risk that the loss of a good number of seats being construed as a popular verdict against both. Having hogged the limelight for a whole week through the resignations, the TRS will now have to shift to a different gear and face the harsh electoral realities.

Stakes in these by-polls are no less for Chief Minister Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy who has more than a full year left for completing his term. A huge responsibility rests on him to ensure a creditable performance by the Congress and stymie criticism by his detractors that he is the main obstacle to the creation of separate Telangana.

Development mantra
Viewing the larger picture, the by-poll will be a test to Dr. Reddy’s development mantra. He has been harping that the central issue in Telangana is backwardness which has to be tackled through rapid and sustained development. The Congress high command appears convinced by this approach but party seniors like M. Satyanarayana Rao are sceptical. They say that only a climb-down by the Congress on Telangana is the path to electoral success.

Telugu Desam supremo N. Chandrababu Naidu has been holding the Telangana card close to his chest. By not revealing his stand, Mr. Naidu feels he is sitting pretty as he can afford to approach the electorate with the stance that it is for the ruling Congress to answer questions relating to Telangana. In doing so, the TDP leader will also reckon with the pressure being applied by Telangana protagonists within the party like T. Devender Goud and Kadiam Srihari.

Different concerns
Unlike the TRS, Mr. Naidu cannot view the upcoming by-polls merely from the prism of Telangana since his political stage is wider and includes concerns in coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema. He will bank on the anti-incumbency factor to cut into the Congress vote and highlight corruption in the present regime and the ruling party’s ‘deceit’ of the Telangana people. The TDP will also seek to put Dr. Rajasekhara Reddy on the mat for advocating separate Rayalaseema when NTR was Chief Minister and encouraging Congress MLAs to chant the Telangana slogan when Mr. Naidu was at the helm. The Chief Minister was now singing a different tune after dumping the TRS with which it had allied in the 2004 elections.

The upcoming by-elections will throw up answers to several intriguing questions that were not convincingly answered in 2004 and also open new windows to gauge the likely public mood in 2009. Apart from the popularity or otherwise of the incumbent Government and the TDP, it will reveal the TRS’ true strength sans support of the Congress .

Lost ground
The Congress was traditionally weak in some of the seats that the TRS won such as Vikarabad, Huzurabad, Jadcherla, Dichpally and Alair and had repeatedly lost them to the TDP. But, the anti-TDP wave was so strong that even powerful TDP candidates were trounced. It will be interesting to see whether the TRS can hold on to its seats or whether the TDP or the Congress will regain lost ground. Unless the TRS’s poll performance is credible, it may find it difficult to sustain the Telangana slogan till the elections and be blamed for imposing by-elections that the people did not want.

statesman · Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 10:58 pm Post subject:

Let the bye elctions expenses to be collected from the political parties who are responsible for it. It has become a tamasha for the parties concerned to play with exchequer's money and people
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STATESMAN

bommasaniv · Posted: Tue Mar 11, 2008 11:12 am Post subject:

Just for my knowledge I wanna ask people for and against division of state, what should the central govt do if TRS wins all seats or loses many of them?

Win: division of state should be initiated?
Lose: burry division of state forever?

Plz pulg-in your comments.

TeluguKing · Telugu Bidda Joined: 25 Dec 2007 Posts: 173

Nothing..
Congress needs minimum 25 MP Seats from AP, they dont care whether they got these seats in Telangana or Andhra.. may be YSR promised this number to the high command.. and he is hoping that he will get 20 from andhra and 5 from telangana.. which may be possible also..

High command have no other option other than believing YSR..
In my opinion bye-elections have very little impact on Central Govts decision as they already took the decision in favour of YSR.. Telangana may become reality after 2009, Because we are going to see hung assembly in 2009 elections.. chiru and TRS plays an important role in future.. If congress losts in 2009, then Telangana is a reality, If it wins with handsome majority (very very rare chances are there) then that is the end to telangana movement..

If TDP supports telangana movement and allies with TRS then they will easily win 80-90 out of 117 in Telangana.. If chiru supports telangana and allies with TRS then they can win 70-80 seats .. surprisingly If congress and TRS joins then they can win upto 50-60 .. If all parties contests independently .. TRS -- 50-60, TDP--20-25 , Congress -- 20-25 chiru/BJP/Communists/MIM -- 20-30