BC Gharjana.

bommasaniv · Posted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 10:50 am Post subject:

The political outcome of the 2009 elections will be affected mainly by these two critical factors:

Will Chiranjeevi enter into politics?
Will the state be divided?

Say if the state is undivided and goes to polls in 2009, then it will be a 55-45 chances for Congress and TDP. TDP cannot get power that easily, even if it gets it could just reach the half way mark or fell short of absolute majority.

Though this govt. is corrupt, YSR has done some good things like giving houses, agricultural projects, land distribution, youth employment schemes etc. That will gain him some % of votes. That may also gain him absolute majority, which is most unlikely.

Now, if Chiru establishes a party, then if he has a pact with TRS or BJP, then he will be the next CM in AP, theres no doubt in it. But if he doesnt have a pact with TRS or BJP, then he could well end as the single largest party or second largest party. And there could be a hung assembly.

Now, if the state is divided then Chiru establishes a party then in Uttarandhra and Kosta, his party will get absolute majority. In Rayalaseema Congrees may end up with more number if seats. In Telangana TRS, BJP, Congress will get good number of seats.

In any case, TDP will be the biggest loser.

Phoenix · Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 2:27 am Post subject:

bommasaniv · Posted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 11:48 am Post subject:

Slight modification, as you've left out BJP, and communists in the tally.

(Divided or undivided, party tally regionally)
Telangana districts: Cong-TRS-BJP-TDP-Chiru (as communists will take some side) 20-30-10-10-30
Hyderabad: Cong-TRS-BJP-TDP-Chiru-MIM 20-10-10-25-30-5
Kosta districts: Cong-TDP-Chiru-BJP 10-20-65-5
Rayalaseema districts: Cong-TDP-Chiru-BJP 40-40-20-0
Uttarandhra Districts: Cong-TDP-Chiru-BJP 10-10-80-0